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Sunday 1/25/09

The trading systems are short.
The Vma remains short from Fridays fix. The Vma can’t have a buy until Tuesday.
The Cci also remains on a sell signal. The cci also can not have a buy until the Dow stabilizes.

On a fundamental level there is no reason that the metals can’t explode. As everybody knows that the dollar is holding up because other currencies are in a worse position then the U.S. Dollar.
At the end of the day there has to be inflation as prices have to go up. I have read a good analogy that this is like someone that goes to a auction & starts to hand out to everyone ten thousand dollars. All that this does is lets people bid more at the auction. When these people are bidding up prices it is not because the prices are worth more but it is because there is more money around. This is what is happening with all the bailout money. Once all this money starts to hit the street(people) then they will have more money to pay for items hence the inflation.
In the past there has not been follow thru to the kind of action that was seen on Friday. Therefore I remain short but will use a tight stop on Monday because every now & then the market likes to surprise me.

One last note on the system trading is that these systems work for the 80% of the time that the metal markets are not trending. Every year there is 1 or 2 trending periods that last from several days to a few weeks these are the challenging times for these systems. The trick is how fast to realize that this is what is happening.

2 Responses to “Sunday 1/25/09”

  1. [...] I have read a good analogy that this is like someone that goes to a auction & starts to hand out to everyone ten thousand dollars. All that this does is lets people bid more at the auction Read more [...]

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