The us $ is far from going straight down. Everyone & their grandmother knows that the time for the dollar is over & yet the dollar has been going up.
Here is the reason that no one is telling you.
As a nation we are consuming more then we are producing. When we consume what we are really doing is shorting the dollar that is that when we spend dollars that we don’t have we are shorting the dollar. So when we repay those dollars we are now buying back these dollars that we shorted. So when we repay our credot cards & reduce the mortgage & when the bank does not issue a new load all that this is doing is going long the dollar. There are other things going on as well as to why the dollar is going up but let me tell you that it is NOT because other country’s are weaker that ours.
In short this is why gold has not gone down while the dollar has been stronger. On the flip side gold will not go up now when the dollar gets weaker. You see gold reacts to the dollar only & when the dollar is moving because of its currency status. This move going on now is a re balancing of dollars so this does not affect the price of gold.
These articles are filed under ‘V.M.A silver trading system’
About the US $
Sunday 1/25/09
The trading systems are short.
The Vma remains short from Fridays fix. The Vma can’t have a buy until Tuesday.
The Cci also remains on a sell signal. The cci also can not have a buy until the Dow stabilizes.
On a fundamental level there is no reason that the metals can’t explode. As everybody knows that the dollar is holding up because other currencies are in a worse position then the U.S. Dollar.
At the end of the day there has to be inflation as prices have to go up. I have read a good analogy that this is like someone that goes to a auction & starts to hand out to everyone ten thousand dollars. All that this does is lets people bid more at the auction. When these people are bidding up prices it is not because the prices are worth more but it is because there is more money around. This is what is happening with all the bailout money. Once all this money starts to hit the street(people) then they will have more money to pay for items hence the inflation.
In the past there has not been follow thru to the kind of action that was seen on Friday. Therefore I remain short but will use a tight stop on Monday because every now & then the market likes to surprise me.
One last note on the system trading is that these systems work for the 80% of the time that the metal markets are not trending. Every year there is 1 or 2 trending periods that last from several days to a few weeks these are the challenging times for these systems. The trick is how fast to realize that this is what is happening.
Thursady Morning
Not much to say as I really don’t know where the metals are going. On one hand they look so strong & yesterdays reversal to the upside looked like a new bigining yet there is not much follow thru….
In any event I’m trading the systems…
The cci remains on a sell signal.
The Vma will go on a buy this morning if the fix is 11.34 or lower. If the fix is 11.34 or lower I am covering the shorts & will go flat since the Cci is short & the Vma will be long.
Silver. Tuesday morning
There is one word for my position now in silver & it is confused. I went short at the fix yesterday which was @ 11.16 now silver is at 11.05. so far so good.
Now here is the confussion. My data doesn’t show that yesterday was a trading day therefore I need to remain short today. If I were to take into account yesterdays trading then I should be covering & going long this morning.
So here is what I’m going to do.
I am covering 1/2 of the short This will bring me down to 50% short. I do seee that the dollar is very strong this morning so this means that the metals are holding up rather well in face of this.
In the event that silver trades down to less then 10.79 at the fix then I’m actually going 50 %long at the fix.
Silver week of 1/19
The Cci remains on a sell. As I have said the omph of the sell is only the first few days & as far as the system goes it is more profitable on the long side then on the short side. This said there is another concern & this is that silver trades in a range & when silver gets above or below this 4% band of this range then the Cci works again. Therefore together that the cci is on a sell & now silver is above its range I have to start taking sell signals again.
As far as the Vma is concerned this is also on a sell signal & Monday will be the 2nd day of such a sell. This in the past has called for a pullback.
Now this week presents a problem since London is open on Monday & ny is closed. My programs get messed up as the data is not really correct.
Nevertheless I am going short on Mondays fix.
System trading 1/14/09
Well the vma did not get high enough to go on a sell.
I correctly pointed out yesterday that once the vma has such a large decline it doesn’t pay to try to jump the gun & get on board.
I added to my short position this morning at the fix.
With the stock market continuing lower the cci can only remain on a sell. Nevertheless as I have pointed out in the past the best part of a sell is the first few days. This has now come & with today it has past.
Therefore at the fix tomorrow I will cover 1/2 of the short & I will not attempt to buy long until the vma gets a sell & then goes on a buy.Once the vma gets a new buy I plan to load up (to 150-200%) as the vma needs to recoup its losses. I also feel that considering what is going on the metals should be higher.
In short I am short & plan to remain at least 50% short for a few days. After that I would like to load up on the long side.
Update for 1/14/09
The Cci remains on a sell. The Vma will go on a sell if the fix is above 10.86
If the fix is 10.86 or higher I will go from a 50% short to 100% short.
All in all I am starting to like the action in the metal market. With the dollar up the matals managed a nice reversal & closed pretty much up for the day.
I am awaiting the next buy & will load up when it gets there. As of now I am short & still looking to add.
Silver Update for Sunday evening
I really wish I would have a crystal ball for this week. I am not sure what will happen but I do know there will be lots of action. There are reports almost every day the will move the market….
Here are the syatem stats. The Vma is on a sell from Fridays fix. The Cci also went on a sell as of Fridays fix. Though the only time that I can sell this silver is at the fix of monday.
Now based on the Cci sell signal I now can go short the siulver market. Therefore on the fix on Monday I am going from a 50% long to at a minimum of 50% short.
The remainder of the short will have to wait until before the fix as I need to see 2 things.
1) where the stock market is before the fix. Since the Cci is based on the stock market I would like to see this market down to give me more confidence in this signal. As an advance in the market will reverse the Cci sell.
2) Will mOndays fix be below Fridays or above it. This is important because the Vma will remain on the sell only if the fix on Monday is greater then Fridays fix. I want Monday fix to be higher to give me more confidence in this sell signal.
One important thing to remember is the the Cci works best on the long side but the first few days of a sell usually give a great downside push. So if the market is down this is helping to set up an explosive sell signal.
As of now on sunday evening at 7:15 I am hopeing that a full fledged sell is going to happen but I wont know this for sure until the morning.
V.M.A silver trading system
The Vma is a very short term trading system. It buys & sells silver on the London silver fix. The Vma which stands for Vairiable Moveing Average is a clear cut number & if the fix is below this number then the system buys on the fix & if the fix is above this number then the system goes short.